Collect data on population for your state (http://www.economagic.com may be a good source for these data) over the past 20 years and use a bivariate regression trend line to forecast population for the next five years. Prepare a time-series plot that shows both actual and forecast values. Do you think the model looks as though it will provide reasonably accurate forecasts for the five-year horizon? (c4p11)
12 AmerPlas, Inc., produces 20-ounce plastic drinking cups that are embossed with the names of prominent beers and soft drinks. It has been observed that sales of the cups match closely the seasonal pattern associated with beer production, but that, unlike beer production, there has been a positive trend over time. The sales data, by month, for 2004 through 2007 are as follows:
a. Use these data to estimate a linear time trend as follows:
Do your regression results support the notion that there has been a positive time trend in the SALES data? Explain.
b. Use your equation to forecast SALES for the 12 months of 2008:
c. Actual SALES for 2008 are:
On the basis of your results in part (b) in comparison with these actual sales, how well do you think your model works? What is the RMSE for 2008? d. Prepare a time-series plot of the actual sales and the forecast of sales for 2004M01 through 2008M
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