The GNP for each quarter of the past four years is shown in the following table: (a) Find the…

The GNP for each quarter of the past four years is shown in the following table:

(a) Find the optimal value of a that would minimize MAPE for the exponential smoothing model.

(b) What is the linear trend equation that best fits the data? Forecast the GNP for the first quarter of year 5 by using this equation.

(c) Forecast the GNP for the first quarter of year 5 by using a four-period moving average.

(d) Which of these methods is most appropriate to use? Justify your answer.

 

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